Housing recovery is in full swing!!!

Over the last few weeks I have been excited to write good news about the housing market.  To be honest as much my fingers were doing the typing about the good news, my heart was wondering if it was really going to last.  I am finally ready to say the housing recovery has arrived.

I am not suggesting that there are not any issues or concerns that remain regarding housing, it is just that it has become very clear that housing is improving and with each passing month the data appears to support the notion of a recovery.

Despite the fact that interest rates have come off their new record lows, buyers are growing in numbers in the new home market.  The number of serious buyers exploring properties with the nation's home builders continues to rise with the housing market index moving up by one point in October.

Trends in current sales and especially in expectations of future sales have been sloping steeply higher this year.  The big surprise has been the significant increase in buyer traffic as it is at its highest level since the boom days of 2006.

Further evidence of housing improvement is in the recent release of stronger-than-expected growth of both housing starts and permit in the latest report. The September housing starts report is up 34.8% from a year ago.

Imagine all of this is happening while many of the other economic reports are headed in the wrong direction.  This week First Time Jobless claims jumped back up to 388,000 which is higher than we have seen in recent weeks.  Before we begin to panic we must recognize that this weekly report has had large movements over the last few months and a consistent rise in claims has not been seen.  The reports seem to vary significantly week to week.

Mortgage rates have been climbing for the last 2 weeks and the impact is being seen in the number of people refinancing.  Last week the MBA reported that refinance applications declined by 5%.  Purchase applications increased slightly which continues to validate the improving housing picture.

I don’t know about you but the election and the debates have been giving me big headaches.  Neither candidate talks about what they will do to help the economy in any sort of detail.  All they both do is just work feverously to scare the voters into believing that if they vote for their opponent, the country will suffer.  So I guess whomever you decide to vote for will be a decision not based upon the promise of the future but more so a vote for the lesser of two evils.

JJ Mack