After 3 consecutive weeks of mostly positive economic reports, this past week has fallen back slightly to more a position in the middle of the road. Although many positive reports were released this week, there has been some retraction in areas which had been going strong.
As mentioned in my last newsletter, this week has been light as far as economic reports. Any movement in the markets has been attributed to happenings in Europe. The craziness continues in the Eurozone continues…one day there seems like there is a plan to fix it, the next day there is a problem. Friday morning once again the headlines read that there is again hope for averting the debt crisis as a majority of the European leaders have agreed on a new deal. (Let’s see how long this agreement lasts?)
As I have mentioned so many times in the past, investors will always look for, or create movement in the markets, as that is the only way profits can be obtained. Unfortunately, when there is a lack of significant market impacting news, the media and investors will manufacture reasons to either be concerned or optimistic so the market changes.
Factory Orders for last month declined .4% which is the first reduction we have seen in months. I certainly would not look at this one month as any indicator in a reversal of the growth we have seen. It would be wonderful if growth took a straight line upwards however it never happens that way.
Mortgage rates continue to remain insanely low. In fact, once again refinance applications are increasing as they rose 15.3% last week. Refinance applications are not near their peak level however they are still going strong. What I find amazing is that there are still people that have not yet refinanced.
Mortgage applications for purchases have also been rising in recent weeks. Applications for the past week increased 8.3%. The recent data shows that housing, although still a major concern for the health of the recovery, is in fact improving slowly. Sales have been rising and housing inventory has been dropping which are both positive indicators for a housing recovery in the making. It will not happen overnight, but it will happen.
First Time Jobless Claims dropped 23,000 to 381,000. This is yet another positive trend for the economy. This recent report is the lowest claims have been in 9 months. The employment picture, like housing, is still in poor shape however the trends are heading in the right direction.
Next week we resume more significant economic reports which can have a great impact on the movement of the markets. Additionally, as mentioned earlier in this newsletter, as of right now Europe seems to have an agreement on dealing with the debt crisis, however we have heard this before only to see it burst into flames. The promising aspect today is that the plan and agreement appear to be more stable than any other one presented before.
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