Friday, August 5, 2011

Believe it or not there are a few bright spots to the carnage taking place on Wall Street!!

Is there anything for me to even discuss other than what is happening in the stock market? Well...I'm going to try.

It is rare when you can look at an event in the marketplace and know that no one, and I mean no one predicted it. I consider myself well versed on market happenings as I daily review as many economic reports and news stories as I can so I may keep everyone updated on market happenings.

Not one article predicted the meltdown we are seeing in the stock market. You haven't even seen a single person on a financial TV show say they knew this was coming. Everyone figured that once the debt ceiling was raised, business and consumers would go about their business and the economy would keep chugging along.

The debt ceiling accord was supposed to provide for a stock market rally, mortgage rates were supposed to rise and confidence in the U.S. Government was to be restored. Not one of these predictions came true. In fact, the exact opposite has occurred. Mortgage rates have dropped just about ½% in one week; the stock market is down 856 point through Thursday's closing bell and down over 1300 points in 2 weeks.

On Wednesday ADP released their estimate of unemployment stating that 157,000 jobs were created in July. Normally the market would have reacted positively to this news however ADP has been notorious for being far off on their estimates so the market no longer pays attention to them.

Anyway, as you must have already heard by now, the national unemployment rate dropped from 9.2% - 9.1% with the economy adding 117,000 jobs which exceeded most analyst's expectations. The better than expected report is jump starting the stock market in a positive direction. Let us hope that the momentum carries through the day and we can head into the weekend on a positive note.

First Time Jobless claims remain above the 400,000 level. Last week there was some jubilation in that claims dropped below 400,000 to 398,000. However the numbers, as they always are, were revised back up to 401,000. This week claims were reported at 400,000 which in all likelihood will also be revised upward next week.

Believe it or not there are a few bright spots to the carnage taking place on Wall Street. Oil prices have plummeted to well below $90 a barrel which should make gasoline prices at the pumps drop within a week or two. Additionally housing may get a boost from all that is happening.

Mortgage rates are approaching all time lows once again. Where housing may benefit is that that economy is in a much better position today than it was the last time mortgage rates were at this level. A better economy, combined with low mortgage rates and stabile home values can be the catalyst to move some fence sitting homebuyers back into the housing market.

I am not expecting a buying frenzy, however I do expect to see an increase in home purchasing activity. Even before the additional rate drops of this week, we have already experienced an increase of 5.1% and 7.8% in mortgage purchase and refinance applications With even lower rates now, more activity should be coming.

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